Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 19.876328 23.139712 27.077111 32.275871 39.116957 48.055825 61.068350
2025-01-12 15.127375 18.612520 23.207678 29.961448 40.127919 55.843077 84.475938
2025-01-19 12.596245 16.006463 20.748252 28.206475 40.502858 62.022292 109.333099
2025-01-26 12.445382 16.483873 22.505639 32.907213 52.522031 94.516370 226.671388
2025-02-02 11.735540 15.989265 22.648955 34.970520 60.796934 126.810104 434.819286
2025-02-09 10.480463 14.474671 20.878633 33.143987 60.327701 137.228229 609.615371
2025-02-16 9.950108 14.015626 20.765415 34.384053 67.329345 178.057757 1420.431959
2025-02-23 9.295581 13.272196 20.036637 34.202211 70.787687 212.377460 3488.742071
2025-03-02 8.730002 12.612472 19.359163 33.967281 74.065246 253.033498 14970.257469
2025-03-09 8.325708 12.181256 19.037492 34.440351 79.779090 321.949292 NaN
2025-03-16 7.759530 11.420931 18.003869 33.059217 78.948232 349.088866 NaN
2025-03-23 7.389858 10.973082 17.521317 32.904643 82.384541 424.765494 NaN
2025-03-30 6.862776 10.232927 16.439614 31.209766 79.990833 447.643502 NaN
2025-04-06 6.331775 9.454652 15.221263 29.005431 74.952537 432.100368 NaN
2025-04-13 5.901418 8.830939 14.262171 27.332172 71.513848 431.801454 NaN
2025-04-20 6.075087 9.305452 15.563721 31.808938 96.675290 1164.937741 NaN
2025-04-27 5.999170 9.311626 15.893512 33.768884 113.259354 2683.413960 NaN
2025-05-04 5.654084 8.786278 15.024017 32.034003 108.440953 2780.347000 NaN
2025-05-11 5.543558 8.700505 15.109414 33.212098 122.122174 7793.630064 NaN
2025-05-18 5.349533 8.440722 14.781352 33.039411 127.395860 18661.715324 NaN
2025-05-25 5.166710 8.191759 14.455607 32.816275 132.408799 77247.072247 NaN
2025-06-01 5.037529 8.040063 14.338744 33.265558 143.363775 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 4.814032 7.690021 13.733552 31.953429 138.947882 NaN NaN